EnvStud 743 – Hydropolitics along the Jordan River
Content:
All of the countries and territories in and around the Jordan River watershed - Israel, Syria, Jordan, the West Bank, and Gaza - are currently using between 95 per cent and more than 100 per cent of their annual renewable freshwater supply. In recent dry years, water consumption has routinely exceeded annual supply, the difference usually being made up through overpumping of fragile groundwater systems. By the end of the century, shortages will be the norm. Projected water requirements for the year 2000 are 2,000 million cubic metres (MCM) annually for Israel, approximately 130 per cent of current renewable supplies, and 1,000 MCM/yr, or 115 per cent of current supplies, for Jordan. Syrian water demand is expected to exceed available supply by 2010.
Superimposed on this regional water shortage are the political boundaries of countries that have been in a technical, when not actual, state of war since 1948. In fact, much of the political conflict has been either precipitated or exacerbated by conflicts over scarce water resources. Water-related incidents include the first Arab summit, with the consequent establishment of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in 1964, armed escalation between Syria and Israel leading up to the Six-Day War in 1967 and, according to some, the war itself, as well as the current impasse over the final status of the West Bank. Israel's incursions into Lebanon and its continued presence there have also been linked to a "hydraulic imperative."
In addition to a natural increase in demand for water due to growing populations and economies, the region can expect dramatic demographic changes from at least three sources. Israel expects about a million additional Soviet Jewish immigrants over the next decade (Bank of Israel 1991) - a 25 per cent increase over its present population. Jordan, meanwhile, recently absorbed 300,000 Palestinians expelled from Kuwait in the wake of the Gulf War. Finally, talks are being initiated over a greater level of autonomy of the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Presumably, an autonomous Palestine would strive to absorb and settle a number of the 2.2 million Palestinians registered worldwide as refugees (Jaffee Center 1989, 206). The absorption of any or all of these groups of immigrants would have profound impacts on regional water demands.
Given the important role of water in the history of the Middle East conflict, and given imminent water shortages in this volatile region, the future can appear full of foreboding.
Course Lecturer: Gerhard Berchtold, PhD
ECTS credits: 6
Coursebook:
Hydropolitics along the Jordan River • Scarce Water and its Impact on the Arab-Israeli Conflict •
Aaron T. Wolf
United NationsUniversity Press TOKYO · NEW YORK · PARIS
United Nations University Press The United Nations University 53-70 Jingumae 5-chome, Shibuya-ku Tokyo 150, Japan Typeset by Asco Trade Typesetting Limited, Hong Kong Printed by Permanent Typesetting and Printing Co., Ltd., Hong Kong Cover design by Kerkhoven Associates
UNUP-859 ISBN 92-808-0859-1 05000 P
The United Nations University's programme area on Sustaining Global Life-support Systems responds to the priorities identified in the Agenda 21 emanating from the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. Within the programme area on Sustaining Global Life-support Systems, the UNU's programme on Integrated Studies of Ecosystems aggregates issues of environmentally sustainable development from the entry point of the capacity of ecosystems and their ability to support, resist, or recuperate from the long-term impact of major transformations. UNU's projects within this programme approach issues from three perspectives: one focus is on integrated studies of fragile ecosystems and other vulnerable regions in given geographic zones: mountains and lowlands, and fragile ecosystems in critical zones. A second set of projects covers improved methods of measuring and monitoring sustainability and environmental management. A third is sectoral studies of critical resources such as forests, oceans, biodiversity resources, and waters.
As part of its activities concerned with water as a critical resource, the UNU is continuing to organize a series of projects that work to harness the inextricable link between water and geopolitics in arid and volatile regions. The aim is to identify issues in disputes concerning water resources; to select alternative scenarios that could lead to the solution of the complex problems related to water issues; and to recommend processes through which the countries concerned are likely to agree to mutually satisfactory solutions to problems.
The Middle East Water Forum held in Cairo in 1993, organized by the UNU, produced an authoritative book on the subject entitled "International Waters of the Middle East: From Euphrates-Tigris to Nile." The Forum proved highly successful and contributed, informally but importantly, to the progress of the Middle East Peace Talks. This book emerged as a part of the UNU's continuing efforts in this field and is part of a series of books related to water issues and conflict resolution.
With only 1,400 MCM of usable flow annually flow 1992), the Jordan River is the smallest major watershed in the region, compared with the Nile with 74,000 MCM/yr or the Euphrates at 32,000 MCM/ yr. But, because of its geopolitical position, the Jordan has been described as "having witnessed more severe international conflict over water than any other river system in the Middle East ... and ... remains by far the most likely flashpoint for the future" (E. Anderson in Starr and Stoll 1988, 10).